The British Economist warned of a war between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah that would include suicide drone attacks, blackouts and rocket barrages.
A report from occupied Jerusalem and Tel Aviv said rockets fired by Hezbollah in northern Israel led to the evacuation of villages and towns after 70,000 people were displaced. This prompted more people to leave southern Lebanon.
He said it was inevitable that Israeli leaders would talk about war, saying the conflict would be the fiercest in the region in decades and would be a disaster for both Israel and Lebanon.
Less confidence
However, as US and European diplomats continue their shuttle trips between Lebanon and Israel, the paper believes there is a way out of the crisis, hoping – less optimistically – to force Hezbollah to retreat 7 to 10 kilometers. border
Yesterday, July 2, Hizbollah announced that the shooting would stop if a cease-fire prevails in Gaza. Even in this case, the result would be a fragile peace, with the party threatening to launch cross-border attacks into Israel, which could discourage many Israelis from returning to their homes.
According to the magazine, if Israel decides to launch a war to weaken Hezbollah and push north, this could include a limited ground invasion of southern Lebanon, which it occupied until 2000. This is a major military mission.
Israeli military chiefs are warning against complacency, citing one of them as saying that Hezbollah is more prepared for an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon than of Ukraine when Russia invades Lebanon in February 2022.
High cost
The Economist expects the Israeli military to advance, but at a slower pace and at a greater cost than in the last war, and Hezbollah will “absorb the shock,” says Khalil al-Hilu, a retired Lebanese general, before attacking Israel’s military. flanks and rear, using “guerrilla tactics,” including an extensive tunnel network built with North Korean help.
According to the magazine, there have been 4 major changes since 2006. One of them is that Hezbollah has acquired a wide range of Iranian suicide drones, while the Israeli army has many tanks and armored vehicles. – Tank missiles. But drones target weak points on top of vehicles.
The second change was the development of Hezbollah’s ground forces. Third, the party’s experience fighting in Syria alongside the Russian air force taught it the value of heavy bomb weapons.
Finally, this firepower is becoming more accurate, as Hezbollah now uses small quadcopters to identify live targets for missiles. It sends out reconnaissance drones before attacking targets a day or two later.
The paper believes that underground warfare is half the problem and the other half is that civilian casualties are inevitable. Several launch sites are located in villages on both sides of the border.
Destructive effects
Shaul Goldstein, head of the Israeli government-owned Noka Energy Company, warned on June 20 that attacks on the Hezbollah power plant could have catastrophic consequences, the report said, adding that “after 72 hours, Israel will not be able to survive.” Goldstein added, “We’re not ready for a real war. We live in a fantasy world.”
The Economist opined that the goal of any Israeli war would ultimately be to remove the sense of dread that hangs over northern Israel and prevent civilian return.
He added that the Israeli military was tired of the war in Gaza and was ready for another war, and that its political leaders needed at least six months to mend relations with the United States and other allies. The service (Mossad) says this is one of the reasons why so many generals wanted to reach an agreement.
As Israeli military intelligence chief Tamir Hayman points out, the report concluded that the Israeli military could establish a 10-kilometer buffer zone in Lebanon, but the result would be a war of attrition similar to the one it waged in the 1990s.
